Two teams with mirror-opposite records square off on TNF tonight, as the 2-6 New York Jets host the 6-2 Houston Texans. The Jets find themselves mired in yet another season of high expectations and disappointing results, while the Texans, once again atop the AFC South, are trying to stay afloat while dealing with a plethora of devastating injuries.
Let's go to the tale of the tape.
Will the Jets offense finally take off?
Much of the fantasy football offseason was spent surrounding the Aaron-Rodgers-is-the-rising-tide-that-lifts-all-(green) boats hype. The math was simple: Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall were elite, proven individual talents, held back by the Jets' abysmal quarterback play. A healthy Rodgers, fully recovered from his Achilles injury — along with a retooled offensive line — would be the missing key. That belief catapulted Hall into the top five of most fantasy drafts, while Wilson was a common pick at the 1-2 turn.
So far, that belief has remained just that — a belief.
The Jets instead find themselves at 2-6, mired in coaching controversies and front-page headlines with an overwhelming sense of wasted potential. Their latest debacle: losing to the previously 1-6, Drake Maye-less Patriots, 25-22.
Aaron Rodgers has been a shell of his former self; not even the addition of his old buddy, Davante Adams, has helped him deliver a vintage performance the last two weeks. It makes you wonder if Tom Brady being so good into his 40s set the bar way too high for other older QBs.
The o-line has been middle of the pack in pass protecting, slightly above the middle in run blocking. And while Hall is currently fourth in total running back fantasy scoring (half-PPR) and Wilson is 11th, it has seemed like more was expected from both players on a per-game basis (Hall is 16th among RBs; Wilson is 14th among WRs).
It all goes back to Rodgers. Sure, he hasn't been terrible, but, as mentioned, we all expected more.
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Is this the game he shines and the Jets offense puts it together? Well, it wouldn't be for a lack of pressure. The Jets MUST win this game in order to stay alive in the playoff hunt. They're welcoming a limping Texans team that has cluster injuries at offensive line and receiver, which is excellent news for a much-maligned Jets defense. The Texans defense isn't the friendliest for opposing passing games, but it's also not the toughest hurdle to overcome.
Fantasy managers of Hall, Adams and Wilson are undoubtedly looking ahead to all those easy fantasy matchups coming up, and perhaps that's a comfort. But again — it all goes back to Rodgers. If his play doesn't improve, then we're just going to continue to see those stars' season-long ranks looking good, while the per-game ones tell the true story. If Rodgers doesn't deliver in this game, with (for all intents and purposes) the real-life season on the line, fantasy football managers should start lowering the expected ceilings for the big names on Gang Green.
Who will step up for the Texans?
As mentioned, the Texans enter this contest comfortably atop the AFC South, but I'm sure if you asked anyone on the team, vibes are anything but immaculate.
After losing Nico Collins for a month with a hamstring injury, the team lost Stefon Diggs to a season-ending knee injury. Most teams wouldn't be able to survive losing their top two receivers. Tank Dell hasn't been his old, explosive self, as he continues to work himself back from injury. And we haven't even mentioned the injuries on defense and the offensive line.
Thankfully for the Texans, they have C.J. Stroud.
Stroud will be needed to play his very best football against a desperate New York team with its back against the wall. And a Stroud at the height of his powers, even without a full stockade of weapons, is still dangerous. But even he needs help.
The obvious candidate to step up and help Stroud in this game is Joe Mixon, and the veteran running back has done just that. And it would likely behoove the Texans to avoid challenging the Jets' secondary and instead attack the defense on the ground. But when it's time to pass, who will Stroud look to? Dell is still around, but as mentioned, he hasn't been himself; he has more sub-10-fantasy-point games this season than he has receiving touchdowns. Maybe Dalton Schultz continues to see his target share increase and Stroud attacks the Jets up the middle. Or maybe another receiver like Xavier Hutchison or John Metchie III or even the ghost of Robert Woods delivers.
I'm not optimistic. This isn't the easiest thing to type, but for Week 9, I would bench Stroud in this game in favor of Matthew Stafford (54% rostered) or Joe Flacco (10%).
Bye-Week TE pickup-and-play: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (20% rostered)
Missing the services of George Kittle this evening? Well, why not give Conklin a start?
The Texans have been tough against opposing tight ends this season, no question about it. But if you look deeper, you'll find they've allowed four catches or a touchdown to the position in four out of eight games this season. Those other four? The Colts twice (who don't have a target-earning TE and had Anthony Richardson under center for both contests), the Jaguars (missing Evan Engram) and the Bills (the entire Bills' passing offense was swallowed whole in that game).
Now, this isn't to say that Conklin is suddenly going to demand targets from Adams and Wilson and Hall, or that he's going to "figure out" the Texans defense — or that he's even a top-tier fantasy TE option at all. But we have seen Rodgers look Conklin's way in the red zone this season; he has 5 targets inside the 20 this year — that's a lot when you consider Adams, Wilson, Hall and, shoot, even Lazard have commanded red-zone looks on this team. He's also on a two-game touchdown streak, so with the Jets not being great at converting rushing touchdowns in the red area, I expect Rodgers to look the tight end's way in scoring opportunities. There might not be a floor, but there's upside if you need it with Conklin.