Fantasy Football: Is 'injury prone' really a thing in 2024?

By Jorge Martin

Special to Yahoo Sports

Hola, and welcome to the opening of NFL training camps, also known as the point in time that casual fantasy football managers start to cram for their upcoming August and September fantasy drafts.

This is also the time to catch up on the injuries to NFL players that are impacting fantasy football. This being football, there is plenty to talk about, so we’ll try and sift through to the most impactful injuries that we need to watch going into draft season.

Since I wrote a similar article to this last year as my first effort with Yahoo Fantasy, I also started co-hosting the Injury [PRO]NE Podcast with Dr. Edwin Porras, who was recently on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Show with Matt Harmon. They discussed several of the same injuries we'll be discussing here in a little more depth. Call this a good tandem piece along with the episode.

Without rehashing the introduction from last year’s article, it makes sense to sum up several of the important concepts that I’ve picked up from working with one of the leading injury experts in the fantasy sports industry:

Players are NOT injury-prone. Football is violent, as only 2.3% of players in an NFL game don’t suffer some injury.

Youth (age 25 or younger), athleticism, draft capital and injury complexity matter in determining a return to form after major surgery.

Look at the date of surgery, not the injury date. Rehab and recovery only start post-surgery.

Injury history matters.

Multiple, unrelated injuries to different body parts should not set off red flags — see: Christian McCaffrey (2022) and Keenan Allen (2017)

Injuries need to heal and be rehabilitated properly before players return to form. Can’t rush the body’s healing powers, no matter how much these players resemble superheroes.

If players do return to the field the year after season-ending injuries, it sometimes takes another full offseason before they return close to their previous form.

One of the injuries that impacted several players we'll talk about here is the torn ACL, which is not the automatic return to the field. Porras did some research and included these factoids in the 2024 edition of the Injury [Pro]ne Draft Guide and Playbook:

After an ACL tear, 29% of RBs do not return to NFL action.

Only 20% of RBs reach at least 85% of pre-injury fantasy production levels and score at least 10 PPR points per game post-ACL tear. The post-injury production dip is only 10%.

Since 2013, 61% of WRs who tore their ACL never returned to 90% of pre-injury production.

Porras also notes that the bare minimum amount of time that orthopedic surgeons require before allowing a player to return to the field is nine months, though the doctor also notes that most ACL surgeries do not fully heal until the one-year anniversary.

Not to put a damper on the return to form post-surgery, but it’s not always a slam dunk that these players make triumphant returns like Adrian Peterson rushing for 2,097 yards in 2012 the year after ACL surgery. Saquon Barkley, another outlier, totaled 1,650 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022, two years after his own ACL tear. Last year, Breece Hall was a league winner in his first season post-ACL, getting slow played in the first four weeks of the season. From Weeks 5 to 17, Hall was the RB2 behind McCaffrey with 16.4 fantasy points per game. His knee just needed the proper amount of healing and ramp-up to be fully unleashed.

Now it’s time to look at some players who will be on the minds of practically all fantasy football managers in the weeks ahead. The players’ 2024 outlook will be included, with some of Porras’ own analysis being sprinkled in. Current Yahoo Fantasy ADP will be used in determining recommendations or not.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Chubb's Week 2 season-ending knee injury was one of the ugliest of the season, with some speculating that it might be career-threatening. He had to have not one, but two surgeries, the second of which repaired the ACL on Nov. 14, 2023. With it being a complicated multi-ligament surgery, it's hard to picture Chubb being 100% by the start of the season.

Well, as seen by this video of him squatting 540 pounds, Chubb is a different type of human being:

That said, a multi-ligament tear in the knee likely needs a longer time for recovery and a return to the field. Chubb also had surgery on the same knee when he was at Georgia.

Chubb is 28, so he’s beyond the optimal age threshold, and his injury complexity is worrisome. Even with his superhuman work in the weight room, a return to NFL action — even training camp — nine months later would mean Chubb returns in mid-August. Multi-ligament tears often take longer than nine months, which begins to creep into the season.

Chubb currently is the RB26 with an ADP of 85.7, which puts him in the early eighth round. As a second running back, that might be dicey. Drafted as a third running back is more plausible, though currently healthy players like Zack Moss, Tony Pollard and Jaylen Warren are going in the next 10 picks.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

The hype train has left the station, as our amigo Dalton Del Don declared that Richardson would finish as QB1 in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. Richardson had shoulder surgery that cut short his rookie season after four games, but what a spectacular debut. In Week 4, AR5 passed for 200 yards and two touchdowns, rushing an additional 10 times for 56 yards and another touchdown. His 29.6 fantasy points left him as QB2 on the week, just behind a monster effort from Josh Allen.

Richardson was injured on a fluke play in Week 5, so the masses lost out on seeing him and Jonathan Taylor in the same backfield for more than a couple of plays. Porras pointed out that the shoulder surgery is not common, but that he’s confident in the success rate and that Richardson will be back on the field performing at a very high level. Richardson did have some soreness in mini-camp, but that was projected to be cleared up as the injury-recovery timeline had doctors expecting the phenom to throw at eight months post-surgery. He started throwing at five, so some soreness was to be expected.

The Colt is QB6 in the non-Del Don division of rankers, going in the fourth round (43.2 overall). In late June, Richardson was found throwing, among other things, and looked athletic, powerful and fluid. Richardson told James Boyd of the Athletic that he did not anticipate changing his running style to be more conservative, though sliding occasionally would be advised. In 17 games, it appears 3,500 passing yards, 700-800 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns could be his floor.

His ceiling could be the stars. Ask Del Don.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans

When Dell suffered a broken left fibula on a red-zone running play, it was similar to the injury that Tony Pollard sustained in the 2022 playoffs. Pollard told Harmon during Super Bowl Week that he was not healthy until after Week 10. Porras said that this is more exception than the rule, as he and other medical professionals expected Pollard to be healthy by the start of the 2023 campaign. And the expectation is that Dell should be healthy for the upcoming season, especially after he was reported to be running routes during OTAs and mini-camp.

Dell’s greatest obstacle this season might not be health, but target competition from Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. The Texans as a team passed 592 times last year. Most fantasy managers would be happy to see C.J. Stroud sling it about 600 times. The sophomore sensation could throw close to half those targets to Collins and Diggs alone. If Dell can get 110-120 of those targets, then he would possibly get a payoff on the overall ADP of 72.0.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

The level of pain that Burrow appeared to be in after suffering a wrist fracture on Nov. 16 2023 made it no surprise that the next day he was ruled out for the rest of the season. From Porras' experience with baseball players, wrist and forearm injuries can be nagging and linger for a while. So there could be residual soreness that lasts, but the expectation is that Burrow should be healthy by training camp.

If he does have a healthy training camp, it would be a first, as injuries and an appendectomy (2021-23) derailed the last three camps. A pandemic made sure Burrow's rookie camp was anything but normal. There was some concern that Burrow might be experiencing some soreness in the wrist, as he dialed back his throws as OTAs and mini-camp progressed. That may be why he's going as QB8 in the fifth round (57.4 overall). This is still the quarterback who averaged 4,543 passing yards and 34.5 touchdowns in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. If he starts training camp healthy and suffers no setbacks, Burrow could be a draft-day bargain at that ADP while throwing to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

A hamstring injury early in training camp followed by a setback that put him on IR was just the start to Kupp’s 2023 season. This was on the heels of tightrope surgery to repair an injured ankle the previous year. Between that and Kupp going into his age-31 season, there are several fantasy managers jumping off the bandwagon.

Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic pointed out how Kupp appears to be beyond the health issues and looks as healthy as he has in a long time, and that a high number of targets should be spread fairly evenly between Puka Nacua and Kupp this upcoming season. Porras pointed to the success that Keenan Allen had in 2023 — 108 catches on 150 targets for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games — after similar hamstring issues. Even playing less than 100%, Kupp still managed a 23.4% target share, according to Fantasy Points Data. A healthy Kupp getting passes at the same rate from a healthy Matthew Stafford behind a beefed-up offensive line would mean 138 targets and 88 receptions if both stayed at the same rate as last year. Many would take their chances on Kupp at pick 41.2 in the fourth round. Porras is recommending Kupp as a potential top-10 WR.

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers

First, Brooks had the misfortune of backing up Bijan Robinson. Then he suffered a torn ACL in late November of last year and ended up having surgery on Dec. 5, 2023. A nine-month rehab puts him on track to start close to when the season starts. Recently, HC Dave Canales was already downplaying whether Brooks would be active when training camp opens.

This is a red flag, as that could portend missed time at the start of the season. Todd Gurley had a similar timeline when he came out of Georgia after suffering a torn ACL in late November. He missed the first two games and then entered in a limited role. After that, it was game over for the league for a few seasons before a degenerative condition in his knee proved too much and cut short his career. Gurley was a top-10 pick in 2015, while Brooks went in Round 2, No. 46 overall, so draft capital is not close.

Brooks is just beginning his journey, and it could be slow going early. If he's not a full participant at the start of training camp, that could slow down his development and learning of the offense. That would put him behind Chuba Hubbard, who ran for 902 yards and 238 carries last season for the Panthers. Brooks would have to get healthy and surpass the incumbent Hubbard, which could be a tall order if both are healthy.

The rookie is going in Round 9 (105.9) just in front of Ezekiel Elliott. That may be too high a price for a young player who would have to be a bench stash for a healthy chunk of the season before potentially paying off. Zeke may be the surer bet.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Williams' ACL tear was of the multi-ligament variety, and Porras told Harmon that he probably should not have come back in time to start the 2023 season. The Bronco still registered 264 total touches. He was not the same, as Troy Renck of the Denver Post pointed out that Williams was not the physical runner he was in his rookie year of 2021, pre-injury. In that year, Williams put up 694 yards after contact in 203 attempts. That number was 588 in 217 attempts last year. He had 63 missed tackles forced as a rookie and just 34 last year.

Aside from probably not being fully recovered, Porras mentioned that players sometimes have to battle through psychological barriers post-surgery. Could that have been the case for Williams? Possibly. Renck did say that Williams looked thicker in the legs, potentially a sign he was going to be sturdier after contact. Being drafted in the same range (105.5) as Brooks, if Williams can be close to the bruiser he was as a rookie he could be a find.

Quick hits on players with lower ADPs

Kirk Cousins/Aaron Rodgers

While both these veteran quarterbacks suffered Achilles tears, Cousins’ injury is slightly more worrisome because it’s on his plant foot. Still, while neither is higher than QB20, the expectation is that each will elevate their skill talent. The Jets’ Garrett Wilson and Hall are both first-rounders, which is the healthy Rodgers effect. Bijan Robinson has a Round 1 ADP, while Drake London is going in the early second. That is solely because Cousins has flown to Atlanta. Both QBs should be healthy but need to be monitored during training camp.

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Watson is focusing on his hamstring health for the first time as a pro, which, if it keeps him on the field, would mean a dynamic talent who scored four touchdowns in a three-game stretch last season and seven scores in four games the previous year is available. At an ADP of 119.4 (Round 10), he's worth a flier in case he hits.

Mike Williams, New York Jets

Williams’ ACL surgery date of Oct. 25 2023 puts him at the nine-month mark right around the start of the Jets’ training camp. If he’s not limited during the preseason, that could be a good sign, though he’d be well behind Wilson for targets.

TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

The big tight end suffered ACL and MCL injuries at the end of December and had surgery on Jan. 29. Even the best-case scenario — hardly a lock considering multi-ligament tears — would mean a Halloween return. Even a less stringent Thanksgiving return means Week 12. What fantasy manager wants to use a roster — or IR — spot on a player for two-thirds of the season?