Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don examines the starting pitching landscape, revealing five pitchers on the rise and one trending down.
Fantasy Pitcher Risers
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Greene's 2.75 ERA last season came with a 3.81 SIERA, but he's done anything but regress while looking like one of baseball's best pitchers in 2025. He's increased his K% (31.3) while cutting his BB% (4.0%) by more than half. A favorable schedule has helped, but three of Greene's four starts have come in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Greene has averaged a career-high 99.4 mph with his fastball, which is a full 1.5 mph higher than the next best (Paul Skenes). His slider is an even better pitch. Greene leads all starters in CSW (34.2%), so he's been as legit as it gets (and fantasy's No. 1 pitcher).
Greene owns a 1.00 ERA, a 0.58 WHIP and a 23.7 K-BB% since July 1 (13 starts). Over those last 80.2 innings, 75 of them have been scoreless. Greene's 0.98 ERA, .175 BABIP and 2.6 HR/FB% have nowhere to go but up (especially considering he owns the lowest GB% among all starters), but he looks like a massive fantasy win with an SP34 Yahoo ADP.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
Schwellenbach has allowed just one run over 20.0 innings with a 0.65 WHIP over three starts to open the season. His 0.45 ERA is a league low. He posted a 28:3 K:BB ratio over 21.0 innings during spring, and Schwellenbach now owns a minuscule 2.17 ERA since July 1 (112.0 innings). His K/9 (8.55) is a bit down compared to 2024, but his K% (26.8) is actually up (25.4). Schwellenbach has increased his splitter and sinker usage, which has led to the seventh-highest GB% (58.3) among starters. Schwellenbach obviously won't finish with numbers this good, but he looks like a fantasy ace.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Strider struck out 13-of-21 batters faced during his final rehab start, and he's set to make his season debut Wednesday. Strider posted a 1.32 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP with 27 Ks over three dominant Triple-A starts (13.2 innings). His four-seamer appears close to normal, and let's not forget this was the best pitcher on the planet before getting injured.
The track record has been ugly for pitchers undergoing multiple elbow surgeries, but science has advanced. And because the partial tear from the fragment was near the bone, Strider became a candidate for a relatively new InternalBrace surgery that promises a quicker return (11.3 months on average compared to 18.8 for Tommy John). OOPSY projects a 2.88 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and a 26.7 K-BB% rest of season. Strider was the SP32 in ADP, but it only took a few weeks of patience for fantasy managers to now have a top-five SP on their teams.
Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
Bubic is a former first round pick who became far more effective after moving to the bullpen last season. He's struggled when starting previously during his career, but Bubic has carried over last season's major gains into 2025 while moving back to the rotation. He owns a 0.96 ERA that's accompanied by a 2.87 SIERA that ranks top 20 among starters. Bubic's CSW (31.8%) ranks fifth best. The lefty has reverse splits throughout his career, and he'll continue to have to overcome pitching in hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium (4.80 ERA at home compared to 0.59 on the road during last season's small sample). Bubic gets a tough matchup in Yankee Stadium his next time out, but his transition back to starting has gone better than expected to say the least.
Bubic was the SP90 while going undrafted in more than 90% of Yahoo leagues, but he's been fantasy's No. 6 pitcher to start 2025.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
Baz tossed another gem (11:0 K:BB) Monday night, and he now owns a 1.42 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and a 27:4 K:BB ratio over 19.0 innings. That comes with a 2.01 SIERA and a 32.4 K-BB% that both rank second among qualified starters. Baz dominated the Pirates' league worst offense during his season debut, but he's faced two above average lineups (Angels and Red Sox) since. Steinbrenner Field is going to be much more favorable for hitters than Tropicana Field, but Baz has made all three of his starts at home.
Baz is a former top 15 pick who was once the top pitching prospect in baseball. His average fastball velocity has been up, and he looks much healthier now compared to last season. Baz was the SP66 in Yahoo ADP and is a clear fantasy riser.
Fantasy Pitcher Faller
Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
Burnes has surrendered three homers and nine walks over just 15.2 innings (three starts) to open the season. A strong spring (27.8 K-BB%) and a new cutter introduced late last season provided optimism for Burnes after joining Arizona, but his decline has only exacerbated to open 2025. Burnes has watched his K% (20.3) drop for the fifth straight season, while his WHIP (1.57) has increased over the last four.
Burnes' short outings has him shy of innings needed, but his 4.63 SIERA would rank 74th among 85 qualified starters, sandwiched between Jake Irvin and Davis Martin. His CSW ranks outside the top 60 starters, and Burnes' SwStr% (9.8) is bottom five in the league. His average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom five percentile.
Burnes is sure to pitch better after signing a massive $210 million contract during the offseason, but his sinking peripherals have suggested decline for a while. He now calls home to one of baseball's best hitter's parks in Chase Field, and THE BAT projects a 4.14 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP rest of season. Burnes was drafted as the SP6 in Yahoo leagues, but he's a fantasy faller.
