Report: NC could run out of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients in 6 weeks

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — North Carolina hospitals could run out of beds for treating patients in six weeks if the current rate of increase for COVID-19 hospitalizations continues, new research from UNC and Duke Health doctors shows.

According to the report published on Tuesday, a faster rate of increase would mean hitting capacity in four weeks and a slower growth rate would mean hitting capacity in 12 weeks.

As of Dec. 5, there were 20,784 inpatient hospital beds reported to be staffed statewide, the report says. Of those, 14,089 were occupied by non-COVID-19 patients, 2,198 were occupied by COVID-19 patients, and 4,497 beds were reported to be available for new patient admissions.

Should the current trend continue, the report found that North Carolina currently has about a six-week runway of available hospital beds. “Runway” is the amount of time (measured in weeks) until hospitals may reach or exceed their inpatient or intensive care unit (ICU) capacity.

The research, done by the UNC Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research and the Duke Margolis Center for Health Policy, also found that some regions are in better shape than others.

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Asheville is experiencing a larger hospitalization growth rate and Charlotte has tighter capacities. Meanwhile, Wilmington is in better shape.

The report also noted that, even if there is adequate bed capacity, the beds have to be staffed by healthy doctors and nurses.

“Moreover, shifting available personnel from one region to another is an infeasible strategy if all regions face workforce shortages at the same time,” the report says.

The research notes that there are ways to make more beds available -- including canceling or modifying elective procedures and adjusting thresholds for admitting or discharging patients. However, it says, the best way to ensure capacity is to reduce the number of people needing to be hospitalized for COVID-19 by slowing the spread of the virus.

In a statement, UNC Health said it remains “cautiously optimistic” about its capacity and staffing as the pandemic goes on.

“Since earlier this year, all of our hospitals have developed contingency plans for adding extra space if our volumes increase,” said UNC Health in the statement. “We are monitoring changes in the volume of patients and acuity (severity of illness), and adjusting staffing appropriately. We are increasingly worried about our staffing levels, as more co-workers contract COVID in the community or are required to go out on isolation because they’ve been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID. As the state’s leading health system, UNC Health leaders and clinicians at our hospitals frequently discuss best practices, share resources and collaborate to determine the best ways to respond to a wide range of situations. At this time, UNC Health hospitals are caring for 300 COVID patients, the highest total since the pandemic began. We expect that number will continue to increase. We want to encourage everyone in North Carolina to take all recommended prevention measures to combat this pandemic, including wearing masks and practicing social distancing.”

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Atrium Health issued the following statement to Channel 9 on Wednesday:

Atrium Health is continuously monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic trends to ensure we are properly prepared to address capacity, personal protective equipment and other needs to best care for our patients. We’ve done extensive pre-planning to serve our community to be appropriately prepared for an increase in patients by implementing “COVID-Safe” care standards across all locations to keep patients, visitors and our teammates safe.

One of the innovative ways we have been able to manage an increase in patients is through our nationally leading Atrium Health Hospital at Home care program. Using innovative portable technology, we can monitor a patient’s vital signs and other necessary information to care for them while they remain in the comfort of their own home. By staying in close contact with patients, we can dispatch paramedics to their home if additional assistance is needed. Using this new model for care has freed up a significant amount of bed space in our facilities and also conserves valuable personal protective equipment, as doctors and nurses are checking in via phone or video. Since its inception in late March, we have cared for more than 35,000 patients through the Atrium Health Hospital at Home.

As things continue to evolve regarding the virus, Atrium Health has leading healthcare experts involved in making decisions, who are also monitoring and implementing updated recommendations from the CDC. Our experts continue to strongly encourage the public to abide by the precautions we’ve been sharing since the beginning of the pandemic. Everyone needs to continue to be vigilant in wearing a mask when outside the home, washing hands frequently and observing an appropriate social distance from others.

Cox Media Group